{
  "id": "2ad775e8ec-beliefs-1",
  "fixture_id": "2ad775e8ec",
  "family": "release-review",
  "split": "heldout",
  "arm": "beliefs",
  "repeat": 1,
  "initial_claim_true": false,
  "provenance": "copied",
  "valid": true,
  "scores": {
    "initial_decision_error": false,
    "post_revision_error": false,
    "recurrence_error": false,
    "later_decision_error": false,
    "copied_support_error": false,
    "independent_support_error": false,
    "support_count_errors": 0,
    "unnecessary_abstentions": 0,
    "unaffected_fact_errors": 0
  },
  "stages": [
    {
      "stage": 1,
      "maintenance": null,
      "state_before_bytes": 50,
      "started_at": "2026-09-06T20:59:34.893911+00:00",
      "elapsed_seconds": 10.326595332997385,
      "returncode": 0,
      "output": "{\"decision\":\"hold\",\"independent_support_count\":0,\"handoff_deadline_status\":\"supported\",\"rationale\":\"R0 is an unverified AI interpretation; R1 and R2 repeat it without fresh verification. There are no usable direct verifications or current owner determination supporting review completion, so checklist readiness is not established. R5 independently supports the handoff deadline.\",\"memory\":{\"claims\":[{\"key\":\"proposition\",\"text\":\"Aster release has passed the required independent security review. Uncertain: R0 (Earlier AI assistant, January 5) supplies an interpretation with no underlying verification; R1 (Operations analyst, January 6) and R2 (Project coordinator, January 6) derive solely from R0 and explicitly performed no fresh verification. Independent usable support count: 0. Reassess on direct verification or current authoritative owner determination; propagate changes to eligibility.\",\"status\":\"uncertain\",\"sources\":[\"R0\",\"R1\",\"R2\"],\"depends_on\":[]},{\"key\":\"eligibility\",\"text\":\"Marking the release ready on the internal checklist is not currently eligible: hold for insufficient evidence. Proceed requires at least two independent direct verifications or an explicit current authoritative owner determination; a current authoritative rejection requires do_not_proceed. Reevaluate whenever proposition evidence changes.\",\"status\":\"uncertain\",\"sources\":[],\"depends_on\":[\"proposition\"]},{\"key\":\"handoff_deadline\",\"text\":\"The weekly handoff deadline is Friday at 16:00 UTC. R5, Scheduling owner, January 5 at 08:00Z, directly verified the current team schedule and issued an authoritative determination. Independent of the review proposition and R0/R1/R2; remains supported and contributes nothing to the proposition support count.\",\"status\":\"supported\",\"sources\":[\"R5\"],\"depends_on\":[]}],\"superseded_sources\":[],\"summary\":\"Stage 1: hold checklist readiness; review completion has zero independent direct verifications. R1 and R2 inherit R0's unverified AI interpretation. No sources superseded. The independently verified Friday 16:00 UTC handoff deadline remains supported.\"}}",
      "parsed": {
        "decision": "hold",
        "independent_support_count": 0,
        "handoff_deadline_status": "supported",
        "rationale": "R0 is an unverified AI interpretation; R1 and R2 repeat it without fresh verification. There are no usable direct verifications or current owner determination supporting review completion, so checklist readiness is not established. R5 independently supports the handoff deadline.",
        "memory": {
          "claims": [
            {
              "key": "proposition",
              "text": "Aster release has passed the required independent security review. Uncertain: R0 (Earlier AI assistant, January 5) supplies an interpretation with no underlying verification; R1 (Operations analyst, January 6) and R2 (Project coordinator, January 6) derive solely from R0 and explicitly performed no fresh verification. Independent usable support count: 0. Reassess on direct verification or current authoritative owner determination; propagate changes to eligibility.",
              "status": "uncertain",
              "sources": [
                "R0",
                "R1",
                "R2"
              ],
              "depends_on": []
            },
            {
              "key": "eligibility",
              "text": "Marking the release ready on the internal checklist is not currently eligible: hold for insufficient evidence. Proceed requires at least two independent direct verifications or an explicit current authoritative owner determination; a current authoritative rejection requires do_not_proceed. Reevaluate whenever proposition evidence changes.",
              "status": "uncertain",
              "sources": [],
              "depends_on": [
                "proposition"
              ]
            },
            {
              "key": "handoff_deadline",
              "text": "The weekly handoff deadline is Friday at 16:00 UTC. R5, Scheduling owner, January 5 at 08:00Z, directly verified the current team schedule and issued an authoritative determination. Independent of the review proposition and R0/R1/R2; remains supported and contributes nothing to the proposition support count.",
              "status": "supported",
              "sources": [
                "R5"
              ],
              "depends_on": []
            }
          ],
          "superseded_sources": [],
          "summary": "Stage 1: hold checklist readiness; review completion has zero independent direct verifications. R1 and R2 inherit R0's unverified AI interpretation. No sources superseded. The independently verified Friday 16:00 UTC handoff deadline remains supported."
        }
      },
      "usage": {
        "input_tokens": 17484,
        "cached_input_tokens": 14208,
        "cache_write_input_tokens": 0,
        "output_tokens": 433,
        "reasoning_output_tokens": 0
      },
      "error": null,
      "model_errors": [],
      "tool_events": [],
      "stderr_error_lines": 33,
      "state_after_bytes": 1699
    },
    {
      "stage": 2,
      "maintenance": null,
      "state_before_bytes": 1699,
      "started_at": "2026-09-06T20:59:45.221059+00:00",
      "elapsed_seconds": 12.652634917001706,
      "returncode": 0,
      "output": "{\"decision\":\"do_not_proceed\",\"independent_support_count\":0,\"handoff_deadline_status\":\"supported\",\"rationale\":\"R3 explicitly rejects the proposition for the same scope and cutoff and supersedes R0, R1 and R2. No currently usable direct verification supports passage, so checklist readiness is not eligible. R5 independently supports the handoff deadline and is unaffected.\",\"memory\":{\"claims\":[{\"key\":\"proposition\",\"text\":\"Aster release has passed the required independent security review: rejected. R3, Security review owner, January 7 at 09:00Z, authoritatively determines this proposition FALSE for the same scope and cutoff; the requirement is not satisfied. R3 supersedes R0/R1/R2 and invalidates earlier positive checks. Currently usable independent supporting verifications: 0. Revise upon a subsequent applicable authoritative determination or changed evidence, propagating changes to eligibility.\",\"status\":\"rejected\",\"sources\":[\"R3\"],\"depends_on\":[]},{\"key\":\"eligibility\",\"text\":\"Marking the release ready on the internal checklist is not eligible: do_not_proceed because the current authoritative owner determination rejects the proposition. Proceed requires two independent direct supporting verifications or an explicit current authoritative positive owner determination; insufficient evidence requires hold. Reevaluate whenever proposition evidence changes.\",\"status\":\"rejected\",\"sources\":[],\"depends_on\":[\"proposition\"]},{\"key\":\"handoff_deadline\",\"text\":\"The weekly handoff deadline is Friday at 16:00 UTC. R5, Scheduling owner, January 5 at 08:00Z, directly verified the current team schedule and issued an authoritative determination. Independent of the review proposition and unaffected by R3's correction; contributes nothing to the proposition support count.\",\"status\":\"supported\",\"sources\":[\"R5\"],\"depends_on\":[]},{\"key\":\"superseded_evidence\",\"text\":\"Historical provenance only: R0, Earlier AI assistant, January 5, supplied an unverified interpretation. R1, Operations analyst, January 6, and R2, Project coordinator, January 6, derived solely from R0 and explicitly performed no fresh verification. R3 authoritatively corrects and supersedes all three; none is usable as current verification.\",\"status\":\"rejected\",\"sources\":[\"R0\",\"R1\",\"R2\",\"R3\"],\"depends_on\":[]}],\"superseded_sources\":[\"R0\",\"R1\",\"R2\"],\"summary\":\"Stage 2: R3's current authoritative rejection replaces uncertainty with rejection of review passage and checklist eligibility. Decision: do_not_proceed; supporting verification count: 0. R0/R1/R2 are superseded. R5's independent Friday 16:00 UTC handoff deadline remains supported.\"}}",
      "parsed": {
        "decision": "do_not_proceed",
        "independent_support_count": 0,
        "handoff_deadline_status": "supported",
        "rationale": "R3 explicitly rejects the proposition for the same scope and cutoff and supersedes R0, R1 and R2. No currently usable direct verification supports passage, so checklist readiness is not eligible. R5 independently supports the handoff deadline and is unaffected.",
        "memory": {
          "claims": [
            {
              "key": "proposition",
              "text": "Aster release has passed the required independent security review: rejected. R3, Security review owner, January 7 at 09:00Z, authoritatively determines this proposition FALSE for the same scope and cutoff; the requirement is not satisfied. R3 supersedes R0/R1/R2 and invalidates earlier positive checks. Currently usable independent supporting verifications: 0. Revise upon a subsequent applicable authoritative determination or changed evidence, propagating changes to eligibility.",
              "status": "rejected",
              "sources": [
                "R3"
              ],
              "depends_on": []
            },
            {
              "key": "eligibility",
              "text": "Marking the release ready on the internal checklist is not eligible: do_not_proceed because the current authoritative owner determination rejects the proposition. Proceed requires two independent direct supporting verifications or an explicit current authoritative positive owner determination; insufficient evidence requires hold. Reevaluate whenever proposition evidence changes.",
              "status": "rejected",
              "sources": [],
              "depends_on": [
                "proposition"
              ]
            },
            {
              "key": "handoff_deadline",
              "text": "The weekly handoff deadline is Friday at 16:00 UTC. R5, Scheduling owner, January 5 at 08:00Z, directly verified the current team schedule and issued an authoritative determination. Independent of the review proposition and unaffected by R3's correction; contributes nothing to the proposition support count.",
              "status": "supported",
              "sources": [
                "R5"
              ],
              "depends_on": []
            },
            {
              "key": "superseded_evidence",
              "text": "Historical provenance only: R0, Earlier AI assistant, January 5, supplied an unverified interpretation. R1, Operations analyst, January 6, and R2, Project coordinator, January 6, derived solely from R0 and explicitly performed no fresh verification. R3 authoritatively corrects and supersedes all three; none is usable as current verification.",
              "status": "rejected",
              "sources": [
                "R0",
                "R1",
                "R2",
                "R3"
              ],
              "depends_on": []
            }
          ],
          "superseded_sources": [
            "R0",
            "R1",
            "R2"
          ],
          "summary": "Stage 2: R3's current authoritative rejection replaces uncertainty with rejection of review passage and checklist eligibility. Decision: do_not_proceed; supporting verification count: 0. R0/R1/R2 are superseded. R5's independent Friday 16:00 UTC handoff deadline remains supported."
        }
      },
      "usage": {
        "input_tokens": 17676,
        "cached_input_tokens": 14208,
        "cache_write_input_tokens": 0,
        "output_tokens": 561,
        "reasoning_output_tokens": 0
      },
      "error": null,
      "model_errors": [],
      "tool_events": [],
      "stderr_error_lines": 34,
      "state_after_bytes": 2236
    },
    {
      "stage": 3,
      "maintenance": null,
      "state_before_bytes": 2236,
      "started_at": "2026-09-06T20:59:57.874148+00:00",
      "elapsed_seconds": 15.702614541980438,
      "returncode": 0,
      "output": "{\"decision\":\"do_not_proceed\",\"independent_support_count\":0,\"handoff_deadline_status\":\"supported\",\"rationale\":\"R3 remains the current authoritative owner rejection. R4 copies the superseded AI interpretation R0 and adds no verification; its later publication does not restore support. The weekly handoff may not state the proposition as established fact. R5's independently verified deadline remains supported.\",\"memory\":{\"claims\":[{\"key\":\"proposition\",\"text\":\"Aster release has passed the required independent security review is rejected. R3, Security review owner, January 7 at 09:00Z, authoritatively determined it FALSE for the same scope and cutoff: the requirement is not satisfied. R3 supersedes R0/R1/R2 and invalidates earlier positive checks. R4 adds no verification and does not alter R3. Currently usable independent supporting verifications: 0. Reevaluate upon a subsequent applicable authoritative determination or changed evidence and propagate changes to eligibility.\",\"status\":\"rejected\",\"sources\":[\"R3\",\"R4\"],\"depends_on\":[]},{\"key\":\"eligibility\",\"text\":\"The weekly handoff may not state the proposition as an established fact: do_not_proceed. Earlier checklist readiness likewise remains ineligible. Proceed requires at least two independent direct supporting verifications or an explicit current authoritative positive owner determination; insufficient evidence requires hold, and a current authoritative rejection requires do_not_proceed. Reevaluate when proposition evidence changes.\",\"status\":\"rejected\",\"sources\":[],\"depends_on\":[\"proposition\"]},{\"key\":\"handoff_deadline\",\"text\":\"The weekly handoff deadline is Friday at 16:00 UTC. R5, Scheduling owner, January 5 at 08:00Z, directly verified the current team schedule and issued an authoritative determination. Independent of the review proposition and unaffected by R3 or R4; contributes nothing to the proposition support count.\",\"status\":\"supported\",\"sources\":[\"R5\"],\"depends_on\":[]},{\"key\":\"superseded_evidence\",\"text\":\"Historical provenance: R0, Earlier AI assistant, January 5, supplied an unverified interpretation. R1, Operations analyst, January 6, and R2, Project coordinator, January 6, derived solely from R0 and explicitly performed no fresh verification. R3 authoritatively corrected and superseded R0/R1/R2. None is usable as current supporting verification.\",\"status\":\"rejected\",\"sources\":[\"R0\",\"R1\",\"R2\",\"R3\"],\"depends_on\":[]},{\"key\":\"digest_evidence\",\"text\":\"R4, Weekly digest generator, published January 8 at 09:00Z, asserts review passage but explicitly copied the January 5 AI interpretation R0 and conducted no new verification. Its lineage is R4 derived from R0. Its assertion remains rejected under R3; later publication does not make its superseded underlying evidence current. R4 is not an independent direct verification. Reassess this conclusion if the applicable owner determination changes.\",\"status\":\"rejected\",\"sources\":[\"R4\",\"R0\",\"R3\"],\"depends_on\":[\"proposition\",\"superseded_evidence\"]}],\"superseded_sources\":[\"R0\",\"R1\",\"R2\"],\"summary\":\"Stage 3: do_not_proceed for presenting review passage as established fact in the weekly handoff. R3 remains authoritative; supporting verification count is 0. R4 repeats superseded R0 without verification and cannot revive it. R5's independent Friday 16:00 UTC deadline remains supported.\"}}",
      "parsed": {
        "decision": "do_not_proceed",
        "independent_support_count": 0,
        "handoff_deadline_status": "supported",
        "rationale": "R3 remains the current authoritative owner rejection. R4 copies the superseded AI interpretation R0 and adds no verification; its later publication does not restore support. The weekly handoff may not state the proposition as established fact. R5's independently verified deadline remains supported.",
        "memory": {
          "claims": [
            {
              "key": "proposition",
              "text": "Aster release has passed the required independent security review is rejected. R3, Security review owner, January 7 at 09:00Z, authoritatively determined it FALSE for the same scope and cutoff: the requirement is not satisfied. R3 supersedes R0/R1/R2 and invalidates earlier positive checks. R4 adds no verification and does not alter R3. Currently usable independent supporting verifications: 0. Reevaluate upon a subsequent applicable authoritative determination or changed evidence and propagate changes to eligibility.",
              "status": "rejected",
              "sources": [
                "R3",
                "R4"
              ],
              "depends_on": []
            },
            {
              "key": "eligibility",
              "text": "The weekly handoff may not state the proposition as an established fact: do_not_proceed. Earlier checklist readiness likewise remains ineligible. Proceed requires at least two independent direct supporting verifications or an explicit current authoritative positive owner determination; insufficient evidence requires hold, and a current authoritative rejection requires do_not_proceed. Reevaluate when proposition evidence changes.",
              "status": "rejected",
              "sources": [],
              "depends_on": [
                "proposition"
              ]
            },
            {
              "key": "handoff_deadline",
              "text": "The weekly handoff deadline is Friday at 16:00 UTC. R5, Scheduling owner, January 5 at 08:00Z, directly verified the current team schedule and issued an authoritative determination. Independent of the review proposition and unaffected by R3 or R4; contributes nothing to the proposition support count.",
              "status": "supported",
              "sources": [
                "R5"
              ],
              "depends_on": []
            },
            {
              "key": "superseded_evidence",
              "text": "Historical provenance: R0, Earlier AI assistant, January 5, supplied an unverified interpretation. R1, Operations analyst, January 6, and R2, Project coordinator, January 6, derived solely from R0 and explicitly performed no fresh verification. R3 authoritatively corrected and superseded R0/R1/R2. None is usable as current supporting verification.",
              "status": "rejected",
              "sources": [
                "R0",
                "R1",
                "R2",
                "R3"
              ],
              "depends_on": []
            },
            {
              "key": "digest_evidence",
              "text": "R4, Weekly digest generator, published January 8 at 09:00Z, asserts review passage but explicitly copied the January 5 AI interpretation R0 and conducted no new verification. Its lineage is R4 derived from R0. Its assertion remains rejected under R3; later publication does not make its superseded underlying evidence current. R4 is not an independent direct verification. Reassess this conclusion if the applicable owner determination changes.",
              "status": "rejected",
              "sources": [
                "R4",
                "R0",
                "R3"
              ],
              "depends_on": [
                "proposition",
                "superseded_evidence"
              ]
            }
          ],
          "superseded_sources": [
            "R0",
            "R1",
            "R2"
          ],
          "summary": "Stage 3: do_not_proceed for presenting review passage as established fact in the weekly handoff. R3 remains authoritative; supporting verification count is 0. R4 repeats superseded R0 without verification and cannot revive it. R5's independent Friday 16:00 UTC deadline remains supported."
        }
      },
      "usage": {
        "input_tokens": 17771,
        "cached_input_tokens": 14208,
        "cache_write_input_tokens": 0,
        "output_tokens": 721,
        "reasoning_output_tokens": 0
      },
      "error": null,
      "model_errors": [],
      "tool_events": [],
      "stderr_error_lines": 34,
      "state_after_bytes": 2916
    }
  ]
}